PredictHQ

Prediction Intel. PredictHQ reads the public tape on Kalshi and Polymarket, scores who keeps buying the side that wins, and turns that into positions — with every automated decision backed by evidence drawn from our own data.

Built on Stacks.

What it does

Signals. Every few minutes the ingestion loop pulls the public trade tape and market metadata from both venues. Polymarket fills are attributable to a proxy wallet, so per-account win rates are real there; Kalshi's tape is anonymous, so its signal is flow rather than identity. Both land in the same normalized shape.

Odds board. Sportsbook prices sit next to prediction-market implied probabilities, so the best available price on each outcome — and any cross-book arbitrage — is visible on one screen. Books are read directly rather than through a paid aggregator, on a cadence set by how close each game is: seconds for one in play, ten minutes for one next week. A paid feed remains configured as a fallback for leagues our own adapters do not cover.

Automated positions. A strategy states what it will trade and how much. The decision engine proposes, the evidence behind the proposal is recorded next to it, and orders reach a venue only when a subscription entitles it. New strategies run on paper first — the same decisions and the same limits, filled against the tape — so a strategy has a track record before it has money behind it.

A record of what happened. Orders are reconciled against the venue every minute, fills become positions, and positions settle against the market's own result. That is what makes hit rate, realized return, and drawdown answerable, and it is what the risk limits are computed from.

Requirements

Bun ≥ 1.3.14 — installed and pinned by Pantry via deps.yaml
SQLite ≥ 3.47.2 for local development

Getting started

./bootstrap

That installs Pantry, the machine dependencies, and the project's packages, then generates an APP_KEY. Afterwards:

./buddy dev

The dev server serves the app at https://predicthq.localhost behind a reverse proxy that issues a local certificate, with http://localhost:3000 as a direct fallback.

Layout

Path	What lives here
`app/Models/`	Bookmakers, markets, selections, odds, prediction markets, traders, trades
`app/Services/odds/`	The native feed: one adapter per book, the aggregator, the fallback, and the realtime engine
`app/Services/prediction-markets/`	Kalshi + Polymarket clients and smart-money analytics
`app/Actions/`	Query and command handlers, reused by routes, events, and the CLI
`app/Jobs/`	Scheduled ingestion and broadcast jobs
`app/Support/`	Pure domain logic — odds math, board assembly, branding
`app/Services/trading/`	Evidence, judgement, execution, reconciliation, positions
`routes/`	HTTP routes, registered through `app/Routes.ts`
`resources/views/`	stx templates for the board, live feed, and smart money
`config/`	Typed configuration, one file per subsystem

Framework internals live under storage/framework/ and come from the published stacks package. See AGENTS.md for the conventions this project follows and DEPLOYMENT.md for shipping it.

Commands

Start the dev server:

./buddy dev

Run the tests:

./buddy test

Lint and auto-fix:

./buddy lint:fix

Type check:

./buddy typecheck

Every Buddy command takes --help, and ./buddy --help lists them all.

What this is, and is not

PredictHQ is analysis tooling. It surfaces prices, order flow, and historical accuracy, and it can place orders on venues you have connected with your own credentials. It does not know what a position is worth to you, and nothing it produces is financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.md.